Kazakhstan case may prove to be U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan blessing in disguise
Had Biden not withdrawn his military forces from Afghanistan I am not sure that PRC would have budged an inch after Muscovy's incursion in Kazakhstan.
I was one of the harshest critics of the Biden administration stance on pretty much all the "Eurasia things" starting from March of the 2021. You may want to check my tweets from that period. I was mainly preoccupied with Ukraine and there were plenty of the things to be worried about -- still no U.S. Ambassador in Ukraine, NS2 stance of the Biden administration etc. And the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan was the cherry on the top of those concerns, because the American handling of the Afghan situation may have inspired Putin to be more belligerent in Ukraine and elsewhere. US were loosing its image of the reliable partner -- just watch the scenery from the Kabul airport.
And in the next few months after August-2021 there were signs that I was right. Biden's tepid answer to Putin actions near the Ukrainian border in Spring-21, their meeting in Geneva in the summer and then Afghan mess -- all that emboldened Putin. His hybrid attack on the EU and especially Poland (via Belarus and through the use of immigrants) came next. After that there were even more serious military build-up near Ukraine, practically encircling the latter from the North, East and the South.
Biden administration finally started crying foul. Mainly verbally though. The WH knows pretty well what Ukraine needs (aircrafts and air-defence) but is still reluctant to provide us with those. Crying foul is not helping. Military deliveries are.
And then Kazakhstan situation happened.
No one can tell with the 100% certainty what was that -- popular uprising, popular uprising weaponised with the criminals to discredit the genuine grassroot movement, coup d'Etat, Russian Federation trying to annex Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev clan pushed behind the scenes (but by whom? Whom Tokayev is fronting?)
Yes, it could be the mix of all the above, but, - given the territory and importance of that country, -- what happened next has the potential to reverberate over the big parts of Eurasia and the whole world.
RF started pouring military on the Tokayev demand and disguising the invasion as the RF-led CSTO (apart of RF and Kazakhstan Collective Security Treaty Organization includes also Belarus, Tajikistan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan) "joint operation" and the silence of the West. We in Ukraine started to feel the vibe of the Crimea annexation in February and March of 2014. Hard to blame us since now Biden is the President of the US and during the Obama administration he was the VP, responsible for all things Ukraine, inter alia. In the previous administration he "overslept" all the preparations to the Crimea annexation (which were seen from the 2009) hence why Biden as the incumbent President should be different?
Many things showed that this is exactly the case. Russians started to behave brazenly, taking control over the critically important infrastructure like airports (obviously they have dubbed it as "an anti-terrorist op"). They even dared to criticise Tokayev's appointment of the Minister of the Information and Social Development, Askar Umarov, as a "Kazakh nationalist" and "anti-russian".
Yevgeny Primakov, who leads Rossotrudnichestvo (Foreign Ministry’s international cooperation agency), wrote that it “doesn’t cooperate with Russophobic trash.”
Roscosmos Head Dmitry Rogozin even publicly advised him "not to visit Baykonur".
Sergey Mironov, leader of a "Just Russia" faction in the Russian Federation Parliament commented on January 6, that “The CSTO forces, which are based on Russian units, can become the basis for the formation in Kazakhstan of a system of countering extremism for years to come. One of the most important tasks of this system should be the protection of the Russian-speaking population, as part of the rapid reaction forces“.
Needless to say that during all this drama unfolding the West was conspicuously silent, and the Western public started to realize that KZ's territory encompasses all the Western Europe with Ukraine and Belarus combined.
But then something very strange happened. Literally in a few days after the beginning of the CSTO "peacekeepers" deployment Kazakhstan President announced that those troops would leave the country within 10 days. And in just more than a week they really started to withdraw. All in all they have been there literally a little more than a week, which doesn't make any sense even logistically. That went not unnoticed by some of the brightest: "A curious and sudden about-face from Russian officials about keeping forces in Kazakhstan. From indefinite to out in a hurry..." - said Garry Kasparov in a tweet.
RIA Novosti announced that the RF-led CSTO forces left Kazakhstan January 15. And that "back-and-forth" was nothing similar to the Crimea annexation.
What's more. The attitude to the "Russophobic trash", as Rossotrudnichestvo’s Primakov called newly appointed Kazakhstan Minister of Information Askar Umarov suddenly was "about-faced" too. Peskov personally told that "The Kremlin will make conclusion based on the Umarov statements in his new status, and, of course, it is necessary to work, interact and deepen cooperation with those ministers appointed by President Tokayev". So much of a hate towards the "russophobe".
So, what happened?
There are signs that China took big (if not unprecedented) interest in the Kazakhstan turmoil. To the point that Jan 10 Foreign ministers from 4 of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the GCC secretary general visited Beijing with a five-day stay.
Zhou Chenming, a researcher from the Yuan Wang military science and technology institute in Beijing, said "Kazakhstan is the key energy supplier for Beijing's West-East Gas Pipeline programme in Central Asia. The current political unrest in the country may affect China's future energy supply chain, which President Xi Jinping will not allow to happen. If any energy crisis happens because the West-East gas pipeline is forced to halt, only the Gulf countries can act as a replacement."
Seems like the Kazakhstan situation has really gotten to the PRC highest level of the decision making and RF was thrown out of the territory, which China now sees as its own turf. But that was way too fast. Here were no time to saving face. And the Asians try to provide the time for the save face phase for the enemies they respect. Putin really got out from KZ with the broken ribs and shortness of breath. Looks like he has little respect from Xi.
And the Biden administration conspicuously total absence in the Central Asia helped it. Had Biden not withdrawn his military forces from Afghanistan I don't think that PRC would have budged an inch after RF incursion in Kazakhstan. Not a single American boot on the Central Asia ground certainly helped to engage PRC and throw RF out of this country.
Putin humiliation in Kazakhstan changed the situation in Eurasia and this change needs to be meticulously analyzed now and this analysis goes well beyond this little article. One thing which I personally see is that the brazen actions of Putin military forces actually showed to the PRC's top brass the extent of his unpredictability. I dare to think, that this military intervention was perceived in Beijing as out of the blue one. Hence the speed of the withdrawal. Hence the "no save face" luxury for Putin provided. Beijing got mad at Moscow.
Putin was pushed to save face elsewhere -- hence that old chestnut about military bases in Cuba and Venezuela.
And all that widens the Washington-Beijing dialog window. Now two superpowers are mad at Moscow's irresponsible (puberty phase alike) behavior, and that may change Putin calculus with regards to Ukraine. For better or for worse needs to be seen, though.
Because, have been rebuffed in Kazakhstan, Putin could be emboldened to advance in other places -- in Ukraine first of all.
Recent developments, though, as reported by few well respected news outlets, may indicate that the opposite is more realistic. Putin has longtime ago said he will join Xi at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics Feb.4. Reportedly Xi asked Putin to not overshadow China's big moment in history once again, as the Muscovy did in 2008 invading Georgia during the Summer Olympics in China. Yes, this demand is just a rumor, -- though it must have been strong one, since Bloomberg reported it.
What is not a rumor but only an official communique by China's Foreign Ministry is the importance of the Olympics to Beijing. Jan 14 China's FM spokesperson stressed that all countries should observe a traditional UN Olympic Truce starting "from 7 days before the start of the Olympic Games until 7 days after the end of the Paralympic Games", which means from Jan 28 to March 20. That gives Ukraine time to pretty much "get ready for the party".
Especially interesting is that those comments were made during the active phase of the Muscovy’s build-up around Ukraine. Clearly, something is not right between PRC and Muscovy.
Worth to remember, that the second phase of the abovementioned military build-up around Ukraine (late autumn 2021) strangely coincided with the Biden-Xi long talk. Yes, we should remember it. Looks like Putin really can be seen as driven by FOMO ("fear of missing out"). Teenagers' psychology dynamics all over again.
While China is very much interested in stability in the world because PRC has the problems of their own (looming financial crisis), after Kazakhstan there might be much more understanding between the U.S. and the PRC with respect to the Muscovy’s imperial ambitions.